What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 44¢ (44% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 5 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17420.1% and 3199.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.040?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

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44¢

Bid/Ask 31/39¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $2,722.87·OI $6,220.47·Closes Apr 27, 2026·5d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.040

7-day price207 snapshots · 25 regime

64¢29¢ current

Apr 206¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.040 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17420.1%

IY (No) 3199.6%

Adj IY 6388%

CRI 2

RV 5896%

VR 2.73

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17420.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3199.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6388%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5896%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.73	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.63	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:43:02 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.040 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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