What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 41640.3% and 514.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.20?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $8,625.03·OI $52,100.13·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

KXAAAGASM-26APR30-4.20

7-day price801 snapshots · 91 regime

79¢10¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.20 on Apr 30, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 41640.3%

IY (No) 514.1%

Adj IY 33312%

CRI 9

RV 1984%

VR 1.22

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	41640.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	514.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	33312%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1984%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.22	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.20	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:43:01 AM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASM-26APR30-4.20 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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