Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.00 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 20% probability of sub-$2.00 gas by end-2026, reflecting current expectations that prices will remain elevated, yet the extreme 4563% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 20% probability of sub-$2.00 gas by end-2026, reflecting current expectations that prices will remain elevated, yet the extreme 4563% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. With just $40 in 24-hour volume against $2,418 open interest and a 3¢ spread, this thin market lacks conviction, and the recent sharp price decline from 6¢ to 3¢ over seven days indicates shifting sentiment toward higher gas prices. The 32 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as the long 259-day timeframe to resolution creates substantial uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions and energy markets.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly lower than $2.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-2.00 yes 100