Will average gas prices be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 21% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $2.50
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Below $2.60
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$21
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
191 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $2
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.50 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.50
KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31-2.50
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.60
KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31-2.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.40
KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31-2.40
Analysis
Markets are pricing in an 93% probability that average US gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026. This reflects expectations about crude oil supplies, refinery capacity, and global demand over the next eight months. The wide spread of contracts—ranging from expectations below $2.00 to above $7.60—indicates substantial uncertainty about potential scenarios. Current sentiment leans toward elevated prices, though this could shift based on OPEC production decisions, hurricane impacts on Gulf Coast refineries, global economic growth, and geopolitical developments. The EIA's weekly petroleum reports and monthly inventory data will provide crucial signals about supply-demand dynamics. Seasonal summer driving demand and potential supply disruptions represent the most immediate price drivers through Q3 2026.
- ›OPEC+ production policy decisions and their compliance rates, which directly influence global crude supplies available to US refineries
- ›Current crude oil prices relative to historical levels; WTI trading above $70-75/barrel would support gas prices near or above $4.40
- ›Refinery utilization rates and maintenance schedules; unplanned outages or seasonal maintenance affect gasoline production volumes
- ›US driving demand patterns, particularly seasonal summer peak (Memorial Day through Labor Day) which typically supports higher prices
- ›Hurricane season (June-November 2026) and potential disruptions to Gulf Coast refining and crude production infrastructure
What moved the line
- Jun 21Below $2.60↓27pp32→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Below $2.50↑15pp8→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Below $2.60↓12pp25→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Below $2.60↑12pp19→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Below $2.60↑8pp17→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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