Will average gas prices be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 8% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $2.60
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Below $2.40
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$7
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
128 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $2
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.50 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.50
KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31-2.50
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.30
KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31-2.30
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.60
KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31-2.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.40
KXAAAGASMINFL-26DEC31-2.40
Analysis
This probability reflects a 22% chance that average U.S. gasoline prices will remain below $2.60 per gallon through the end of 2026. The contract structure shows traders expect prices more likely to exceed $2.60 than stay below it, with progressively lower odds for lower thresholds. Current pricing is driven by global crude oil supply expectations, OPEC+ production decisions, seasonal refining patterns, and potential geopolitical disruptions. The biggest near-term catalyst is OPEC+ meeting outcomes and monthly inventory data releases, which typically move energy markets sharply. Additional uncertainty stems from hurricane season impacts on Gulf refining capacity, Chinese economic growth influencing demand, and any shifts in U.S. shale production efficiency. With five months remaining until year-end, traders are pricing in a likely scenario where supply constraints or demand recovery push prices above current levels.
- ›Current U.S. gasoline spot prices relative to $2.60 threshold and recent 12-month trading range
- ›OPEC+ production policy decisions and their enforcement, particularly regarding oil supply tightening through year-end
- ›Hurricane season (June–November) risk to U.S. Gulf Coast refining capacity and distribution infrastructure
- ›Crude oil inventory levels and refining margins, which directly determine retail gas price floors
- ›Global demand signals from China, Europe, and other major economies affecting crude oil pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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