Will average gas prices be above or below $2.20 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 14% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $2.30
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Below $2.20
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$128
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
188 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.20
KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-2.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.30
KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-2.30
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.10 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.10
KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-2.10
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.00
KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-2.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $1.90 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $1.90
KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-1.90
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $1.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $1.80
KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-1.80
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 93% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, with declining probabilities for higher thresholds ($4.50 at 82%, $7.60 at 31%). This reflects expectations that crude oil prices and refining conditions will remain elevated through the year. The probability is primarily driven by current energy markets, geopolitical supply risks, and seasonal demand patterns. Key drivers of upward pressure include OPEC production decisions, Middle East tensions, and summer driving season demand spikes; downward pressure comes from potential recession signals, increased U.S. shale production, or strategic petroleum reserve releases. The most significant catalyst will be quarterly crude oil price movements and OPEC+ production meetings scheduled throughout 2026, which typically influence gasoline futures and spot prices within weeks.
- ›Current crude oil futures prices and the crude-to-gasoline price spread as of May 2026
- ›OPEC+ production quotas and announced supply adjustments for H2 2026
- ›U.S. inventory levels and refinery utilization rates relative to seasonal norms
- ›Probability falls sharply at $4.50 (82%) and drops to 31% at $7.60, suggesting market consensus clusters around $4.40-$4.50 range
- ›Trading volume concentration ($1,280 in 24h volume on $4.40 contract vs. lower volumes on extreme thresholds) indicates core market conviction around mid-range outcomes
What moved the line
- Jun 24Below $2.00↓6pp11→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Below $2.00↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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