Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.10 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.10 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The "No" position (gas above $2.10) is heavily favored at 71% implied probability, reflecting expectations that gas prices will remain elevated through end-2026, though the 29¢ "Yes" price offers an extreme 4,563.8% annualized yield if gas averages below $2.10.
Analysis
The "No" position (gas above $2.10) is heavily favored at 71% implied probability, reflecting expectations that gas prices will remain elevated through end-2026, though the 29¢ "Yes" price offers an extreme 4,563.8% annualized yield if gas averages below $2.10. With only $2,764 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, this market suffers from severe illiquidity despite the wide yield spread, suggesting the extreme payout reflects thin positioning rather than genuine market conviction. The recent 1¢ price decline over seven days and moderate 32 cliff risk index warrant caution, as low liquidity could amplify volatility near the December 2026 expiration.
Also on polymarket at 37¢(Δ -19¢)
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly lower than $2.10 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-2.10 yes 100