Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (6%) for a BoC rate cut exceeding 25bps in June 2026, yet the implied yield on a Yes resolution reaches an extraordinary 10,495.6%, suggesting severe illiquidity with only $121 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (6%) for a BoC rate cut exceeding 25bps in June 2026, yet the implied yield on a Yes resolution reaches an extraordinary 10,495.6%, suggesting severe illiquidity with only $121 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 4¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 6¢ price, and the cliff risk index of 16 indicates meaningful uncertainty around the exact resolution criteria, making this contract suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with both illiquidity and the technical definition of ">25bps" versus exactly 25bps.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of >25bps at its Jun 10, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUN-C26 yes 100