Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 15¢ price implies Bitcoin needs to appreciate roughly 185% from current levels to clear $130k by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 798% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to historical volatility (1306% realized vol) and the substantial open interest of $83.9k.
Analysis
The 15¢ price implies Bitcoin needs to appreciate roughly 185% from current levels to clear $130k by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 798% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to historical volatility (1306% realized vol) and the substantial open interest of $83.9k. The thin 24-hour volume of $2.2k and tight 1¢ spread indicate low liquidity despite the compelling risk-reward, while the neutral regime and modest 7-day price stability (14¢ to 15¢) suggest the market may be pricing in genuine skepticism about such aggressive upside rather than reflecting genuine inefficiency.
Resolution rules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $129999.99 starting 01/01/2026 12:00 AM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-129999.99 yes 100