Will Carlos De La Cruz be the Republican nominee for TX-35?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Carlos De La Cruz be the Republican nominee for TX-35?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. De La Cruz is priced as a heavy favorite at 79¢ with over 3.5 years until the November 2027 close, yet the market shows minimal liquidity with just $4 in 24-hour volume and a notably lopsided yield structure where the "No" side offers 216.9% implied yield versus 19.4% for "Yes." The extreme yield asymmetry and low open interest of $3,965 suggest this market may lack sufficient depth to attract serious capital, though the tight 2¢ spread indicates some baseline market-making activity.
Analysis
De La Cruz is priced as a heavy favorite at 79¢ with over 3.5 years until the November 2027 close, yet the market shows minimal liquidity with just $4 in 24-hour volume and a notably lopsided yield structure where the "No" side offers 216.9% implied yield versus 19.4% for "Yes." The extreme yield asymmetry and low open interest of $3,965 suggest this market may lack sufficient depth to attract serious capital, though the tight 2¢ spread indicates some baseline market-making activity.
Resolution rules
If Carlos De La Cruz wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-35 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-35R26-CCRU yes 100