ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 19, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

1 source contract·Polymarket 1·closed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2027 · 560d

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 1 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

14%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

—

not bound

Polymarket

14%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$4K

1 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

560 days

Open top contract Read answer china

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?14¢$4K

30-day trend

Aggregate of 1 contract · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027

1 contract$4K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

0xe6d5e5…4b7d

14¢±0$4KP→

Analysis

This probability represents the chance that China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan within the next 20 months. The 17% figure suggests markets view an invasion as unlikely but not negligible. Military escalation risks, geopolitical tensions, and cross-strait stability are the primary drivers of this probability. The current level reflects a period of relative calm compared to 2024-2025, though structural factors including Taiwan's strategic importance and military modernization efforts continue to shape assessments. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include changes in U.S.-China relations, Taiwan's defense capabilities, or any military incidents in the Taiwan Strait. No single scheduled event determines resolution, but significant policy shifts or military posturing by either side would likely move markets substantially.

›U.S. military commitment to Taiwan's defense and the current state of U.S.-China diplomatic relations
›Taiwan's defensive military capabilities and the timeline for completing weapons systems deliveries
›Recent military exercises or incidents in the Taiwan Strait and frequency of Chinese military activity near Taiwan
›China's domestic economic conditions and military readiness compared to 2024-2025 assessments
›Official statements from Chinese, American, and Taiwanese leadership regarding military intentions or deterrence strategies

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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