Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before May 1, 2026?

This micro-cap market shows extreme pricing distortions typical of low-liquidity prediction markets, with a 7¢ price implying only 7% odds of Mills leaving Congress in the next 14 days, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 40,324% annualized yield—a red flag suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine edge. The $3,234 open interest and $951 daily volume are minimal, the 3¢ spread is wide relative to the price, and the realized volatility of 1,845% indicates wild swings disconnected from fundamental news flow (info arrival rate of just 1.1/h). With expiry imminent and no recent major political developments signaled, this appears to be a thin-liquidity trap where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of actually executing trades rather than a meaningful probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If Cory Mills leaves the House before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade