Will DHS funding bill become law before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will DHS funding bill become law before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market is pricing an 78% probability that DHS funding legislation will pass before the July 1, 2026 deadline, but the extreme 2059% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity—the $52K open interest with only $5K daily volume suggests thin markets where tail positions command outsized premiums.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 78% probability that DHS funding legislation will pass before the July 1, 2026 deadline, but the extreme 2059% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity—the $52K open interest with only $5K daily volume suggests thin markets where tail positions command outsized premiums. The 7-day price decline from 89¢ to 81¢ combined with elevated realized volatility (142%) and a cliff risk index of 4 indicates growing uncertainty about passage timing, particularly given Congress's historical pattern of funding brinkmanship and the 76-day window remaining before expiry.
Resolution rules
If legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment has become law before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHSFUND-26JUL01 yes 100