Will DHS funding bill become law before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will DHS funding bill become law before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 14 cents over seven days from 46¢ to 33¢, suggesting deteriorating legislative prospects for DHS funding passage within the 15-day window.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 14 cents over seven days from 46¢ to 33¢, suggesting deteriorating legislative prospects for DHS funding passage within the 15-day window. The extreme implied yield of 5,313% on Yes contracts reflects the combination of deep out-of-the-money pricing and imminent expiry, though the tight 1¢ spread and $31.9k daily volume indicate reasonable liquidity for a near-term political event. With a Cliff Risk Index of 2 and realized volatility at 791%, this market is pricing in binary legislative outcomes, likely tied to specific congressional votes or deadline negotiations occurring around late April 2026.
Resolution rules
If legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment has become law before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHSFUND-26MAY01 yes 100