Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart.... This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This is an extremely illiquid micro-cap contract with a 5¢ price reflecting a 5% probability that DtMF becomes the #1 most-streamed song in the US for 2026—an extraordinarily unlikely outcome given the massive competition in streaming.
Analysis
This is an extremely illiquid micro-cap contract with a 5¢ price reflecting a 5% probability that DtMF becomes the #1 most-streamed song in the US for 2026—an extraordinarily unlikely outcome given the massive competition in streaming. The implied yield of 3392% on the Yes side is a classic sign of low-liquidity pricing inefficiency, while the recent 33% price decline from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days suggests weakening conviction or informed selling. With only $197.65 in 24-hour volume and $5,730 open interest, position sizing would be severely constrained for any serious trader.
Resolution rules
If DtMF is the #1 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFYUSA-26-DTMF yes 100