Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 65,884.5% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 65,884.5% implied yield on the Yes side. With only 13 days until expiration and a wide 11¢ spread, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a credible consensus on whether Eurozone Q1 2026 QoQ GDP growth will exceed 0.4%. The stalled 7-day price movement at 4¢ and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggest this is a dead or abandoned market that should be approached with extreme caution.
Resolution rules
If Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEZGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.4 yes 100