Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $334 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable for hedging purposes.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $334 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable for hedging purposes. The 447% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is pricing in a very unlikely outcome—exactly one gubernatorial loss—which seems underpriced given that multiple governors typically face competitive re-election challenges in any given cycle. The wide 7¢ spread and modest cliff risk index of 3 indicate structural uncertainty rather than imminent resolution pressure, though with 259 days to expiry, this market has ample time for meaningful price discovery if liquidity improves.
Resolution rules
If exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-1 yes 100