Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
188 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will exactly” vs “Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will exactly
Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 0
KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-0
Will exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 4
KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-4
Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 3
KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-3
Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 2
KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-2
Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 1
KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-1
Cluster 2
Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026
Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?: 5 or more
KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-5
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that five or more U.S. state governors will fail to win re-election in 2026. The current 13% probability reflects a relatively low expectation for this outcome. Gubernatorial re-election rates are historically high, with most sitting governors successfully defending their seats. The main factors driving this assessment are the political environment heading into the midterm period, state-specific political dynamics, and incumbent strength across various states. The key catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the November 2026 general election, when all gubernatorial races will conclude. Leading up to that date, primary results in summer 2026 will provide early signals about incumbent vulnerability and challenger viability.
- ›Historical re-election rate for incumbent governors exceeds 70% in most midterm cycles, establishing a high baseline for incumbents to overcome this threshold
- ›State-by-state polling and approval ratings for current governors will indicate which incumbents face genuine competitive pressure versus comfortable re-election prospects
- ›Primary results during summer 2026 will reveal whether sitting governors face serious intra-party challenges that could weaken their general election positions
- ›The partisan composition of states with gubernatorial races and national political momentum in 2026 will affect electoral environments across different regions
- ›Candidate quality and campaign resources of challengers relative to incumbents will determine whether competitive races actually materialize
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Favored for House in 2026, But Senate Battle Tight
The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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