Will exactly 2 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will exactly 2 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite modest $2,675 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite modest $2,675 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 2211% implied yield on the Yes side signals either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial tail risk for exactly two Republican Senate losses—a notably specific outcome in a 51-member caucus. With 259 days to expiration and a moderate 16 cliff risk index, the market has time to develop liquidity, though the neutral regime and recent 1¢ price uptick suggest limited conviction among current participants.
Resolution rules
If exactly 2 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-2 yes 100