Will exactly 6 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Will exactly 6 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering 695% annualized return versus 169% for Yes, suggesting the 67¢ price may overweight the exact 6-justice outcome relative to other vote distributions.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering 695% annualized return versus 169% for Yes, suggesting the 67¢ price may overweight the exact 6-justice outcome relative to other vote distributions. Zero 24-hour volume combined with modest $7,401 open interest indicates thin liquidity despite the tight 1¢ spread, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. With 107 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a niche Supreme Court prediction with limited market participation, making the high implied yields less actionable given the illiquidity constraints.
Resolution rules
If exactly 6 justices vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVRASCOTUSVOTE-26-6 yes 100