Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.3%?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 7-cent spread, suggesting it may be inactive or abandoned.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 7-cent spread, suggesting it may be inactive or abandoned. The price has surged dramatically from 23¢ to 88¢ over seven days, yet the 0% current price contradicts this movement data, indicating a potential data error or stale pricing. With only 10 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market is approaching resolution with significant uncertainty about whether France's Q1 2026 preliminary GDP growth will exceed -0.3% QoQ, but the absence of any trading activity makes this an unreliable indicator of true market sentiment.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 is above -0.3 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPQOQP-26APR30-T-0.3 yes 100