Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 9-cent spread, suggesting no active trading despite the contract expiring in just 13 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 9-cent spread, suggesting no active trading despite the contract expiring in just 13 days. The price collapsed from 90¢ to 0¢ over seven days, implying traders have shifted to near-certainty that France's Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth will fall at or below -0.2%, though the absurdly high implied yields (310.9% for Yes, 25,180% for No) indicate these prices are unreliable given the complete lack of liquidity. With resolution imminent and the cliff risk index at 9, this market appears abandoned and should not be used for genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 is above -0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T-0.2 yes 100