Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (30¢ to 81¢), now pricing in an 84% probability that French Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth exceeds 0.4%, but the $114 open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggest extremely thin liquidity with a wide 15¢ spread.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (30¢ to 81¢), now pricing in an 84% probability that French Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth exceeds 0.4%, but the $114 open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggest extremely thin liquidity with a wide 15¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields (613% for Yes vs. 11,145% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 4 indicate significant tail risk, likely driven by the approaching 4/30/2026 expiration in just 14 days when preliminary GDP data will be released. This combination of high price conviction, minimal trading activity, and imminent resolution suggests the market may be vulnerable to sharp repricing once actual data arrives.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 is above 0.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T0.4 yes 100