Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 52,529.9% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 52,529.9% implied yield on the Yes side. With only 13 days to expiry and a 15¢ spread, any actual trade would likely move the price dramatically, suggesting the market lacks sufficient participation to establish a meaningful consensus on whether French GDP growth will exceed 1.6% YoY. The high cliff risk index (19) combined with zero liquidity indicates this contract is essentially non-functional for real price discovery.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 is above 1.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T1.6 yes 100