Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1.8%?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 89,746% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 89,746% implied yield on the Yes side. With only 13 days to expiry and a 15¢ spread, the market appears abandoned rather than reflecting genuine probability assessment—France's recent GDP growth has typically ranged 0.5-1.5% YoY, making 1.8% a notably bullish threshold that warrants skepticism of the zero pricing. The high Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or data availability, warranting caution before trading based on these distorted incentives.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 is above 1.8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T1.8 yes 100