Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market has collapsed 46% over seven days to 22¢, pricing in only a 22% probability of German GDP growth exceeding 0.1% QoQ in Q1 2026—a notably pessimistic view given Germany's recent economic trajectory.
Analysis
The market has collapsed 46% over seven days to 22¢, pricing in only a 22% probability of German GDP growth exceeding 0.1% QoQ in Q1 2026—a notably pessimistic view given Germany's recent economic trajectory. With just 13 days to expiry, zero 24-hour volume, and a wide 11¢ spread against minimal $210 open interest, this illiquid market carries substantial cliff risk (score: 4) and the extreme implied yields (10,319% on Yes) reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction. The sharp recent sell-off warrants caution, as it may signal either deteriorating German economic data or simply reflect low participation in a niche contract approaching resolution.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.1 yes 100