Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. The 3¢ price reflects extremely low conviction that Whitmer will be first among her peer group to declare, with zero 24-hour volume suggesting minimal trader interest despite the extraordinarily high 1,261.9% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
The 3¢ price reflects extremely low conviction that Whitmer will be first among her peer group to declare, with zero 24-hour volume suggesting minimal trader interest despite the extraordinarily high 1,261.9% implied yield on the Yes side. The 4¢ spread and modest $846 open interest indicate thin liquidity, making the contract vulnerable to sharp repricing if any of the listed candidates signals imminent candidacy. With 935 days until expiration, the market has substantial time decay working against Yes holders, though the neutral regime score suggests no current directional bias in the broader political environment.
Resolution rules
If Gretchen Whitmer is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GWHI yes 100