Will Howard Lutnick announce their departure as Commerce Secretary before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Howard Lutnick announce their departure as Commerce Secretary before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The 27¢ price reflects a low base rate for cabinet departures within a 45-day window, though the extreme 2301% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful tail risk pricing despite thin liquidity ($150 daily volume).
Analysis
The 27¢ price reflects a low base rate for cabinet departures within a 45-day window, though the extreme 2301% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful tail risk pricing despite thin liquidity ($150 daily volume). The modest 1¢ price decline over seven days and neutral regime indicate no recent catalysts have shifted expectations, while the 3¢ spread and $1,034 open interest point to limited market depth that could amplify volatility if new information emerges.
Resolution rules
If Howard Lutnick leaves (or announces they will leave) as Commerce Secretary before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLUTNICKANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-JUN01 yes 100