Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.95% in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.95% in April 2026?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $3 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly unreliable price signal despite the 94¢ quote suggesting near-certainty of above-3.95% inflation.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $3 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly unreliable price signal despite the 94¢ quote suggesting near-certainty of above-3.95% inflation. The absurdly skewed implied yields—108.8% for Yes versus 26,698.7% for No—reflect the microscopic liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment, and the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant resolution uncertainty. With just 21 days to expiry and a flat 7-day price trajectory, this market lacks sufficient depth to serve as a reliable inflation forecast.
Resolution rules
If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 3.95% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRAZILINF-26APR-T3.95 yes 100