Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.05% in April 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that Brazilian inflation will exceed 4.05% in April 2026, yet the microscopic liquidity ($5 open interest, $5 daily volume) and severe spread (4¢) suggest limited conviction behind this price. The asymmetric implied yields—108.8% for Yes versus 26,698.7% for No—indicate the market is heavily skewed toward the affirmative outcome, though the No side's astronomical yield reflects the illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity. With only 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this contract faces significant binary resolution risk, making the extreme pricing potentially unreliable given the thin market depth.

Resolution rules

If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.05% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade