Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the massive 588% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the massive 588% implied yield on the Yes side. The 12¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and with only 11 days until expiry on April 30, 2026, the market appears abandoned rather than reflecting genuine conviction that Italy's Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth will fall to or below -0.2%. The cliff risk index of 6 suggests significant uncertainty around final resolution, likely due to the thin market depth and potential data release timing issues.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above -0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T-0.2 yes 100