Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the next Colombian presidential election?

The market has experienced notable downward pressure, declining 13% over seven days from 39¢ to 34¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around Cepeda Castro's candidacy despite 410 days until resolution. The 173% implied yield on Yes contracts is exceptionally high relative to the 45.9% yield on No, indicating substantial risk premium pricing that may reflect either genuine uncertainty about his viability or thin liquidity ($25,723 open interest) driving volatility. With a tight 2¢ spread and neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a consensus view, warranting caution given the low 24-hour volume of $1,321 and moderate cliff risk.

Resolution rules

If the winner of the next Colombian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Iván Cepeda Castro, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade