What is the current probability for "Will Jared Kushner visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 71 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Jared Kushner visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 16667.4% and 15.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Jared Kushner visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Jared Kushner visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Jared Kushner visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating a 12,034% implied yield on the Yes side, yet zero 24-hour volume and only $8,982 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and low conviction among traders.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 2/5¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $585.33·OI $9,189.66·Closes Jul 1, 2026·71d remaining

KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-JKUS

7-day price86 snapshots · 10 regime

5¢2¢ current

Apr 91¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating a 12,034% implied yield on the Yes side, yet zero 24-hour volume and only $8,982 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and low conviction among traders. The 7-day price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ combined with a realized volatility of 3,549% indicates this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract where the low price likely reflects both genuine geopolitical implausibility and the illiquidity trap of small-cap prediction markets rather than true probability assessment. With 73 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 24, any breaking news regarding U.S.-Iran relations or Kushner's travel plans could trigger sharp repricing in either direction.

Resolution rules

If Jared Kushner has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 16667.4%

IY (No) 15.9%

Adj IY 16667%

CRI 32

RV 3519%

VR 2.35

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	16667.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	16667%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3519%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.455

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:15:23 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-JKUS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →