Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing October 17, 2027. John Coupar's contract has collapsed 50% over seven days (12¢ to 6¢), now pricing him at just 6% implied probability despite the wide 7¢ bid-ask spread suggesting thin liquidity with only $7,785 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
John Coupar's contract has collapsed 50% over seven days (12¢ to 6¢), now pricing him at just 6% implied probability despite the wide 7¢ bid-ask spread suggesting thin liquidity with only $7,785 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The extreme 1048% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the steep discount, but the sharp recent decline and minimal trading activity indicate this may be a stale or abandoned position rather than a genuine market consensus. With 546 days until the October 2027 close and a moderate cliff risk index of 16, traders should verify whether recent Vancouver political developments triggered the selloff or if this represents mispricing in an illiquid contract.
Resolution rules
If John Coupar wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-JCOU yes 100