Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability indicates that prediction markets assign Kareem Allam approximately a 1-in-4 chance of winning the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election. The estimate reflects a competitive three-way race, with current frontrunner Ken Sim at 39% and Pete Fry at 27%. Allam's position depends on factors including voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration, his ability to consolidate support among candidates challenging the status quo, and turnout patterns in Vancouver's diverse wards. The municipal election itself, scheduled for October 2026, will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Between now and voting day, campaign momentum, debate performance, endorsements, and any emerging local issues could meaningfully shift probabilities among the leading candidates.

• ›Ken Sim holds the incumbent advantage at 39% implied probability, suggesting markets view him as the favorite despite any dissatisfaction with his administration
• ›A three-way split between Sim (39%), Fry (27%), and Allam (26%) indicates no dominant consensus outcome, with meaningful uncertainty about vote consolidation
• ›Allam's probability depends on whether anti-incumbent voters coalesce behind him versus Fry or fragment across other candidates
• ›The October 2026 municipal election date is the hard resolution point; campaign events and polling data before then will be the primary drivers of probability shifts
• ›Voter turnout and demographic shifts in specific Vancouver wards could significantly alter the viability of each candidate's path to victory

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 0d
• Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 0d
• Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 1d
• Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 1d
• Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 16% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds