Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$97
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 17, 2027
447 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Kareem Allam
KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-KALL
Cluster 2
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Ken Sim
KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-KSIM
Cluster 3
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?: Pete Fry
KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-PFRY
Analysis
This 21% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Kareem Allam wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election scheduled for October. The relatively modest odds suggest Allam faces strong competition, likely including established candidates or those with higher name recognition in the city. The probability could shift based on several factors: campaign momentum and media coverage, changes in public opinion polling, endorsements from influential Vancouver figures, or major local issues that emerge before voting day. The election itself on October 24, 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Until then, movements in this probability will likely track publicly available polling data, campaign developments, and any significant municipal issues affecting voter sentiment.
- ›Current public opinion polling showing Allam's support levels and name recognition relative to other candidates
- ›Endorsement patterns from established Vancouver politicians, business leaders, or community organizations
- ›Campaign spending and media visibility compared to competing mayoral candidates
- ›Shift in local policy priorities or crises that could significantly impact voter preferences before October 24, 2026
- ›Turnout projections and demographic changes in Vancouver's voting population
What moved the line
- Jul 23Kareem Allam↓11pp25→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Pete Fry↓6pp31→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Pete Fry↑5pp26→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Kareem Allam↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Ken Sim↓3pp25→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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