Will Josh Shapiro and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Josh Shapiro and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $197.54, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $197.54, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The implied yield of 1261.6% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—a classic sign of thin markets where small positions can distort pricing—while the 1¢ spread suggests very few active traders. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days, combined with the high cliff risk index of 32, indicates this market may be vulnerable to sharp repricing as we approach the 2028 election cycle.
Resolution rules
If Josh Shapiro (D) and JD Vance (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JSHAJVAN yes 100