Will Karen Bass finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Karen Bass finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread suggesting some order book activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread suggesting some order book activity. The 172.1% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated—a typical artifact of near-zero prices—while the 86% risk-adjusted yield indicates the market may be mispricing Bass's actual chances of finishing second in a 2027 LA mayoral race. With 412 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the zero price likely reflects minimal trading rather than genuine market consensus that Bass has no shot at second place.
Resolution rules
If Karen Bass finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-MAYORLA26-2-KBAS yes 100