Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 4, 2027. 522 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 247.8% and 19.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	247.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	19.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	203%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	274%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.65	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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