Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee a.... This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. This market prices Rubio's victory at just 6 cents despite over 1,000 days until resolution, implying the market assigns only a 6% win probability to the Republican nominee in this specific matchup.
Analysis
This market prices Rubio's victory at just 6 cents despite over 1,000 days until resolution, implying the market assigns only a 6% win probability to the Republican nominee in this specific matchup. The extreme 867.8% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deeply unfavored position, though minimal 24-hour volume of $15.63 and low open interest of $71.88 suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The stable 7-day price action (holding at 4-6 cents) and neutral regime score indicate this is a relatively stable but speculative long-shot bet rather than a volatile or arbitrage-prone opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWMRUBR yes 100