What is the current probability for "Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 71 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12382.7% and 21.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The 5¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of Secretary of State Marco Rubio visiting Iran within 76 days, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 11,588% implied yield—a classic setup for tail-risk speculation rather than fundamental conviction.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $632.62·OI $16,039.16·Closes Jul 1, 2026·71d remaining

KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-MRUB

7-day price48 snapshots · 8 regime

6¢4¢ current

Apr 122¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 5¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of Secretary of State Marco Rubio visiting Iran within 76 days, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 11,588% implied yield—a classic setup for tail-risk speculation rather than fundamental conviction. Volume is thin at $148.24 over 24 hours against $15,790 open interest, and the price has drifted down from 4¢ to 5¢ over seven days, suggesting modest selling pressure despite the asymmetric payoff. The 24 Cliff Risk Index and 4,268% realized volatility indicate this market experiences sharp, discrete moves likely tied to geopolitical news, making it illiquid and prone to sudden repricing around diplomatic developments.

Resolution rules

If Marco Rubio has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12382.7%

IY (No) 21.5%

Adj IY 12383%

CRI 24

RV 4958%

VR 2.80

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12382.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	21.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12383%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4958%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.80	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:15:45 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-MRUB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →