Will Melissa Strange be the Democratic nominee for KY-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will Melissa Strange be the Democratic nominee for KY-04?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 86¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 4¢ spread.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 86¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 4¢ spread. The extreme 522% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing or that traders are heavily discounting the possibility of an upset, though the high cliff risk index of 8 indicates significant tail risk around the nomination outcome. With 566 days until expiration, there's ample time for the political landscape to shift, but the minimal trading activity means this price should be treated as illustrative rather than a genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Melissa Strange wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 KY-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXKYPRIMARY-04D26-MSTR yes 100