What is the current probability for "Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77500 Headcount in Q1 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 74¢ (74% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 31, 2026. 95 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77500 Headcount in Q1 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 141.6% and 1035.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77500 Headcount in Q1 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77500 Headcount in Q1 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77500 Headcount in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing July 31, 2026.

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74¢

Bid/Ask 73/76¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $4,376.23·OI $9,480.8·Closes Jul 31, 2026·95d remaining

KXMETAHEADCOUNT-26JUL-77500

7-day price145 snapshots · 57 regime

77¢74¢ current

Apr 2310¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

If Meta Platforms, Inc. reports above 77500 Headcount in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 141.6%

IY (No) 1035.2%

Adj IY 1021%

CRI 3

RV 211%

VR 1.70

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	141.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1035.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1021%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	211%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.70	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/27/2026, 6:16:23 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 6:08:22 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMETAHEADCOUNT-26JUL-77500 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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