Will Milah Flores be the Democratic nominee for TX-17?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Milah Flores be the Democratic nominee for TX-17?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $653 in open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $653 in open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 2,094.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thin market where minimal capital can move prices dramatically, while the wide 8¢ spread reflects genuine uncertainty about fair value. With 563 days until expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32, there's time for the market to develop, but traders should be cautious given the lack of price discovery and the recent downward movement from 3¢ to 4¢ suggests limited conviction in either direction.
Resolution rules
If Milah Flores wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-17 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-17D26-MFLO yes 100