Will Natus Vincere win the Team Liquid vs. Natus Vincere Valorant match?

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Natus Vincere win the Team Liquid vs. Natus Vincere Valorant match?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest pricing unreliability rather than genuine opportunity.

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34¢
Bid/Ask 32/36¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $142.11·OI $258.29·Closes May 6, 2026·15d remaining
KXVALORANTGAME-26APR221400TLNAVI-NAVI
7-day price25 snapshots · 3 regime
32¢32¢ current
Apr 197¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest pricing unreliability rather than genuine opportunity. With only $39.3 in 24-hour volume and open interest, combined with a 13¢ spread and realized volatility of 8983%, the 33¢ price likely reflects minimal trading activity rather than informed consensus—the 6028% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of thin liquidity rather than a realistic return expectation. The match was originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 but the market doesn't close until May 6, suggesting potential scheduling changes or delays that may have already been reflected in the extreme price swings observed over the past week (21¢ to 26¢).

Resolution rules

If Natus Vincere wins the VCT EMEA 2026: Team Liquid vs. Natus Vincere Valorant match originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5201.7%
IY (No) 1151.9%
Adj IY 5202%
CRI 2
RV 3562%
VR 1.74
▶ Full indicator table (7)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)5201.7%
IY (No)1151.9%
Adj IY5202%
CRI2
RV3562%
VR1.74
IAR0.3/h

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:19:18 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXVALORANTGAME-26APR221400TLNAVI-NAVI yes 100

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