Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $54 open interest, and the 7-cent spread represents an 8.5% bid-ask gap that likely reflects difficulty in price discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $54 open interest, and the 7-cent spread represents an 8.5% bid-ask gap that likely reflects difficulty in price discovery. The sharp 7-point price rally from 83¢ to 90¢ over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 9 (very high) suggests positioning ahead of the Q1 2026 GDP release, though the absurdly inverted implied yields (301.8% for Yes versus 24,443.8% for No) indicate severe market dysfunction, possibly from thin liquidity distorting the No side pricing. With only 13 days to expiry and Q1 2026 GDP data typically released in late April, this market is approaching resolution with minimal trading activity to validate the current 82¢ price.
Resolution rules
If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q1 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXNGDPQ-26Q1-C3.0 yes 100