Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 21% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.0%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Above 1.5%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$300
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
35 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C2.5
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.0%
KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C2.0
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 1.5%
KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C1.5
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?: Above 1.0%
KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C1.0
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 0.5%
KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C0.5
Analysis
This prediction reflects market expectations that U.S. nominal GDP growth will exceed 1.5% annualized in the second quarter of 2026. The 92% probability indicates confidence in at least modest growth, though the spread across contracts reveals uncertainty about the magnitude. Markets are pricing in resilience despite potential headwinds like higher interest rates or labor market softening, but also acknowledging meaningful downside risks below 1.5%—reflected in the 49% probability for above-1.5% growth specifically. The official GDP estimate for Q2 2026, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late July 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Current positioning suggests traders expect growth to land between 1.0% and 1.5%, favoring the lower-bound outcome over stronger performance.
- ›Nominal GDP growth depends on both real GDP growth and inflation rates; a combination of modest real growth (1-2%) and stable inflation (2-3%) would support outcomes near 1.5%
- ›Labor market strength or weakness directly affects consumer spending and wage growth, with employment data and wage trends in Q2 acting as leading indicators
- ›Federal Reserve policy and inflation trajectory through mid-2026 shape both growth expectations and nominal adjustments; any significant rate changes would alter growth forecasts
- ›The contract pricing spread (92% above 0.5%, 49% above 1.5%) suggests traders view sub-1.5% but above-1.0% growth as the modal outcome
- ›Historical quarterly nominal GDP has averaged 2.5-3.0% recently; achieving only 1.5% would represent material deceleration requiring specific economic headwinds
What moved the line
- Jun 18Above 1.0%↓61pp82→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 1.5%↓23pp44→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 1.0%↓20pp21→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 0.5%↓17pp25→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 0.5%↓7pp32→25¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%Above 2.6%last 86% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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