Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $317.88 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for forecasting actual Q1 2026 GDP growth odds.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $317.88 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for forecasting actual Q1 2026 GDP growth odds. The astronomical implied yields (5514% for Yes, 1337% for No) reflect the minimal capital at risk rather than genuine market conviction, and the recent 4¢ price decline over seven days suggests thin positioning rather than meaningful directional movement. With just 13 days to expiry and a 2 Cliff Risk Index, this contract is approaching resolution but lacks the liquidity depth needed to generate actionable probability estimates.
Resolution rules
If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q1 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNGDPQ-26Q1-C5.0 yes 100