Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 20, 2029. 1005 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1174.8% and 1.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1174.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	587%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

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