Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 14, 2026. The market is pricing Poland's Eurovision 2026 participation at 99% with virtually no trading activity ($0 volume, $1 open interest), suggesting this is a consensus outcome with minimal price discovery.
Analysis
The market is pricing Poland's Eurovision 2026 participation at 99% with virtually no trading activity ($0 volume, $1 open interest), suggesting this is a consensus outcome with minimal price discovery. The extreme 15,496% implied yield on the No side reflects the negligible 1¢ ask price rather than genuine uncertainty—this is a liquidity desert where the wide 7¢ spread and near-zero volume make the contract difficult to trade meaningfully. With only 27 days to resolution and Poland's consistent historical participation in Eurovision, the high cliff risk index (12) indicates potential for sharp repricing if unexpected political or financial circumstances emerge, though the neutral regime score suggests no imminent catalysts.
Resolution rules
If Poland has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-26-POL yes 100