Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 13% probability on a YES contract offering an extraordinary 19,914% implied yield, suggesting the market has dramatically underpriced the likelihood of Q1 2026 GDP exceeding 3.0% growth.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 13% probability on a YES contract offering an extraordinary 19,914% implied yield, suggesting the market has dramatically underpriced the likelihood of Q1 2026 GDP exceeding 3.0% growth. With only 13 days to expiry and a modest $2,447.96 in 24-hour volume against $32,107.93 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential slippage risk. The recent price decline from 14¢ to 12¢ over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates elevated volatility near resolution, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests some market-maker presence.
Resolution rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGDP-26APR30-T3.0 yes 100