Will Rick Edmonds be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Rick Edmonds be the Republican nominee for LA-05?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,071 open interest, and the 2¢ spread suggests difficulty finding counterparties at current prices.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,071 open interest, and the 2¢ spread suggests difficulty finding counterparties at current prices. The 2,087% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of pricing at the extreme tail (5¢), indicating minimal conviction rather than genuine opportunity—the market would need to move only 5 basis points to double that yield. With 566 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk score of 32, this appears to be a speculative position with little market-making activity, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for assessing true nomination odds.
Resolution rules
If Rick Edmonds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 LA-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLAPRIMARY-05R26-REDM yes 100